What 1.5°C Pathways Look Like

The IPCC Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5°C made clear that

45-60% emissions reductions (median 50%) are needed by 2030

in order to reach carbon neutrality by 2050,

and remain close to 1.5°C of warming.

Global CO2 characteristics Pathways

limiting warming to 1.5°C

with no or limited overshoot

(less than 0.1°C):

Robust declining trend in next decade

Reach net-zero CO2 around mid-century

Varying levels of carbon-dioxide removal (CDR)

Non-CO2 emissions are also strongly reduced

but do not reach zero globally

IPCC SR15

Are these changes still feasible?

The IPCC found out that there are six tick boxes that need to be ticked if you want to be able to say that something is feasible.

✔️ Geophysical feasibility

✔️ Environmental feasibility

✔️ Technical feasibility

✔️ Economic feasibility

There are boxes that we scientists, can tick ourselves because we understand the physics, we understand how our Earth system works, we understand how technologies develop or we understand economics

But there are two dimensions where we scientists do not call the shots.

Institutional feasibility: whether our political system can do this

Social and cultural feasibility: whether our societies are willing to change some of their behaviors that are currently resulting in very much pollution.

NDCs and compatibility with 1.5°C

1.5° Consistent NDCs

Take a look at the countries following an emissions pathway compatible with a 1.5°C trajectory.

Overshoot NDCs

Take a look at the countries currently following an emissions pathway not compatible with a 1.5°C trajectory.

Dr. Joeri Rogelj